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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.